Michael Jackson and the Federal Government... Coming to a Town Near You...

Michael Jackson and the Federal Government
O.K., I'll admit it. I grew up in the 80's and listened to some of Michael Jackson's music... How couldn't you? Michael Jackson in the 80's was like Elvis in the 50s, The Beatles in the 60s, and The Rolling Stone in the 70s. But enough of the stardom talk. After all singers come and singers go... and while each have entertained us in a unique and revolutionary way, there is always another star waiting to take the spotlight.

We can make several observations about Michael Jackson:

1. MJ had a name the preceded him; and a brand name has a value unto itself.
2. MJ owned a considerable amount of property rights from artistic property (see Jackson Five, Beatles, and Michael Jackson)... and a ton of other collectibles.
3. MJ was on the verge of bankruptcy because his liabilities far exceeded his assets... Most reasonable assets list his debt at $500,000,000.

To be sure, there is a long list of creditors that will be left holding the bag once Michael Jackson's estate is settled. Undoubtedly, someone will own the Neverland Ranch, someone else will own the property rights to Billy Jean, and who knows what will happen to the Beatles music. But that is part of the problem when you are in debt... your creditors are not necessarily your friends... and in the end, their need to collect on a debt will supersede any final wishes Jackson had for his estate. One of his creditors went as far as to book a 50 date tour for Jackson that was to start in the near future... Only having insurance on 10 of the 50 dates as no shows, these speculators will be at the bottom of a very long list.

The Office of Accounting released a statistic today that the United States will exceed 100% of GDP by 2023. That means that our country will be officially broke by that date. Some of the more hawkish figures have the date moved up approximately three years to 2020. During WWII, we sold War Bonds to help raise money to pay for the war. This time around, we are in way over our heads, as governments like China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia are holding our debt. And just like Michael Jackson found out, your creditors are not always your friends... and in the end, they own you!!!

I do however, believe that there are workable solutions to our problems... tough decisions, no doubt. Hard decisions, absolutely. Painful choices, for sure. And to be quite frank, I am not so certain that Congress nor the American people will have the stomach to make the necessary changes until a crisis actually hits... By then, a lot of the difficult decisions will be made out of pure necessity. Hopefully, we can all learn a lesson from Michael Jackson.

Coming to a Town Near You...
According to the National Coalition Against Legalized Gambling, the United States is experiencing its third great gambling wave. The first wave took place during the 1840s to 60 with the opening of the Wild West, and riverboat runs up and down the Mississippi. The second great wave took place from 1910 to approximately 1929 where mafia families pushed numbers rackets in factories, and gambling halls in speak easies. Now the 1990's to 2010s marks the third great gambling wave in the United States.

I write this from the view point of an Ohioan who has voted against legalized gambling on three separate ballot issues. It is not that I do not like gambling, it is more that I do not like gambling in my back yard. Look at the states that have legalized casino gambling, and at the root of every casino you will find rich and opportunistic millionaires trying to become billionaires on someone else's dime.

In Ohio, Governor Stickland who was once a minister, social worker, Congressman, and now governor is trying to pass legislation that will have the state legislature create a slots in race track bill and simply sing it into law. This is the equivalent of political suicide. The governor recognizes that casinos are not good for the state, but he is desperate to find money... any money to keep Ohio away from the time of fiscal meltdown that is taking place in California.

Fellow blogger Ax (www.bigbigbet.blogspot.com) observed the impact a casino in Philadelphia will have on Atlantic City. The impact will be devastating. Yet, I will also remind readers that any government that is reliant on seeing its citizens lose money in casinos, is a government that is doomed to fail. Call me a conservative... call me a do-gooder... and yes, call me a guy who does not mind a game of chance... But a casino on every street corner is not the American Dream.

WYNN and MCRI still very much remain on my short list. MCRI in particular lost approximately 9% of its value today. EFU, SRS, and TM still remain on the short list.

SLV and D are long. Possibly FAZ when it breeches 4.5.

Reality Check... Flight to Quality?

In psychology, the Theory of Cognotive Dissonance describes the psychological battle that exists between two competing views. Often times, it suggests that people can live within their own fantasy world, with little to no interaction with the real world. As long as the individuals... or group of individuals are willing to accept their beliefs, and disengage themselves from reality, then the charade and continue. The danger lies in the way an individual or group returns to reality. In a best case scenario, rationality and common sense take over. In worst case scenarios, individuals and groups can react through extreme measures and violence.

I write these words to describe several situations that have occur ed lately:

World
1. Iran "Elections": The people of Iran are finding out that their really is no such thing as democracy... freedom... or anything that resembles choice as election results and government actions repress the voice of reason. A government that represses its own people is a government that must be gotten rid of, and to be sure this is not the last we will hear of protest inside of Iran. This is the same government that held a symposium on whether the Holocaust took place... And in many ways, Iran represents a Islamo-facist regime similar to some of the most radical in history. There are a growing number of people inside Iran who are disillusioned with their government. Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness... Not in Iran.

Economics
2. Why is the Market Dropping?: This was a headline from Bloomberg today, as another 200 points were peeled from the Dow. As many of us scratched our heads as to why the market went up so drastically over the past four months, we now know that Wall Street insiders are heading for the doors en-masse. And the saps who believed it was safe to jump back in, will be left holding the bag as the market will test March lows. Note that the same bankers who helped inflate this latest rally were able to pump, then dump their options courtesy of TARP Funds. While the rally that has brought Wall Street off its 6,500 mark from March is nothing to sneeze at, one must ask the simple question... "Is the rally sustainable?" Not with tightening credit standards, increasing unemployment, and large pull backs in consumer spending. I met a doctor who is actually talking about repairing items in his house instead of calling someone to do it for him!

Popular Culture
3. Jon and Kate Plus Eight: No folks, I do not spend my evenings watching this pseudo-reality show. But anytime parents have eight children to raise, their work is cut out for them. And a TV show where the mother and father earn a combined 175,000 per episode started off as a ten show series, then a 20 show series, and now has bloomed into a 40 episode series last year alone, we know that there is more to the story then simply providing for your family. The mother (Kate) now has a book, and is also enjoying the spotlight, whereas Jon wants to get these outside people out of his family's life... One thing is for certain, if there is no parent relationship... then there really isn't a family... and in the end it may be a bit of greed and stardom that kills the goose that lays the golden egg.


Flight to Quality?
If we were to base the market on rational outcomes we would assume that:

1. Oil, natural gas, gold, silver, and other precious metals would be trading at all-time highs as of now... but they are not.

2. Commodities such as beef, soy beans, corn, and wheat would be trading at all- time highs... but they are not.

3. Inflation would be the word of the day based on Federal Reserve Loans, Treasury Policies, and no real measure of M3 Money Supplies.

4. The Dollar flexes its muscle as the only game in town?

5. Commerical Real Estate will look for its own bailout in the near future...

6. Healthcare Reform is an issue that each and every medical lobbyist in DC will call in a favor to their favorite Congressman... and the end game will be more gridlock.

What are your thoughts?

The South Will Rise Again, Pardon Me Pandit, Red Box Killed the Video Store

The South Will Rise AgainThe trickle of migration from the North to the South continues. I well expect Ohio as well as PA, IN, MI, WI, MN, and IL to lose population once the census is tallied. Steel, cars, finance, and raw materials had made the Midwest the belt buckle of industrial production in the United States. Take Northeast Ohio at the beginning of the 20th Century. Rockefeller's Standard Oil was head quartered in Cleveland, the tire industry was founded in Akron, and Ford Motor used production sources throughout Ohio. Secondary manufacturing and industrial applications grew as well. For instance Sherwin-Williams Paint, Glidden, and even companies like Eaton, TRW, and Timken rose to stand alone...or what we thought were stand alone businesses. Today, Ohio's credit rating was lowered by Moody's. It is not the end of the world, but it is a shot across the bow that Ohio must transition and transition quickly. Sweet Home Alabama

At the end of the Civil War, a popular phrase among Southerners was "The South will Rise Again." After Sherman's March from Atlanta much of that non-sensical talk was beaten out of the South. However, with the advent of electricity... closed shop states... and the Civil Rights movement, it appears as thought the South could rise again... and with the economic rise... there will be a political rise as well. Not the same type of rise the Confederates has hoped for, but a rise that will eventually lead to increased power in Washington D.C..

However, I am reminded of a fellow colleague who taught in the South for a number of years. She described her situation as terrible inside the public school systems... many of which still lack critical funding and cultural idiosyncrasies that would leave many of us scratching our heads. In the school where she taught in Central Florida, there were 13 different languages spoken in her high school alone. She literally kissed the ground of Ohio the day she moved back... and that is the truth.

Pardon Me Pandit
Here are a list of comments made by Citi's CEO. Candid...yes... honest...maybe.... Revealing... definitely.

1. “There is a clear trade-off between saving more and stimulating the economy in the short term to achieve stability."

2. “We too were very credit-dependent and relied too greatly on non-core, or wholesale funding sources, including securitization and other aspects of the shadow banking system and we suffered from imbalances in the economy.”

3. “We have too much leverage as consumers and as a financial system.”

4. “It is not hard to envision a significant gap in the availability of credit.”

5. "There is a clear linkage between credit creation and [gross domestic product] growth. Again, the implication is lower growth."

Red Box Killed the Video Store
Again, I walked into Video Update and received a pitch from the dopes behind the counter. This time it was a membership to their video club that would allow me to watch a certain number of videos a month...with no late charges. Without the pre-paid membership it would cost me $5.74 to rent a video for three days. If I wanted to be a good husband a give my wife a selection and pick two choices, we'd be talking $10.00.... heck we might as well see the movie at a theater. I placed the videos down at Video Update, and walked up to the Red Box and selected two videos for $2.14. The end of video stores is at hand.

Going, Going, Gone

Going
To say that the Federal Reserve is between a rock and a hard place could well be the understatement of the day. Treasury's sale of bonds do not go as well as the powers that be had expected. Let's face it, countries are not as interested in purchasing our debt anymore. So, interest rates went up almost an entire point. Fellow blogger Boom and Doom called this move approximately 8 months ago. He also predicted that CD's (which are as close to safe money as possible) will become more and more attractive in the future in part, due to the interest rate Treasury will have to pay to attract bond sales. However, this move begs several questions:

1. Will the U.S. Government raise interest rates in a time of deep recessions?
2. Will an increase in interest rates cause the consumer lending market to collapse?
3. Will businesses re-hire/hire anyone in a tight credit environment?

I would tend to say no to all of these questions. Right now, it seems as though the here and now are taking precedent over the future. And let's face it, the here and now is still a bit more serious than anyone is willing to admit!

Going
I had the good fortune of running into a banker who is part of a diversity in the workplace initiative. He shared with me the good news that he and his organization received approximately $15.8 in stimulus money. The gentleman told me that his instructions are to crate as many jobs as possible. Sounds like fun right? His real concern is that the stimulus monies are only creating temporary work. Work that will last no more that three to five months. More importantly, he conceded that stimulus money does not constitute real growth... He raised the basic questions as to "What am I going to habve these people do?" "How well do you train a temporary worker?" Which leads us back to square one; where will growth come from? However, he did suggest that most banks in the United States are on solid financial footing... I will let readers digest whether an estimated $5 Trillion dollars in off balance sheet losses constitute solid financial footing.

Gone
Consumer discretionaries, particularly casino stocks continue to take a beating. MCRI closed under the $7.50 mark on Friday. WYNN another one of my short list members slipped below the Mason-Dixon Line to 37 and some change. That trade in particular appears to be best made in the 40-37 trading range.

Green shoots? I don't buy it. Amusement park attendance is down... way down. Some of the shops at Dollywood in Eastern Tennessee have even gone as for as sending workers home because they are so slow. Consumers are becoming fearful too of gasoline that is nearing the $3.00 per gallon national average.

The grilling that Ken Lewis (pronounced Loo-eth)took on Capitol Hill was only secondary to another drubbing Treasury took from the House Financial Services Committee. While I am schocked that Barney Frank is still allowed to handle the gavel at those meetings, equally concerning is Congress' lack of direction and lack of cohesion. But I am reminded that our great nation was founded on the basic principle of compromise... A footnote, BAC's stock moved above 12.00 this week, and appears poised to make another step to the upside... You can "bank"that Wall Street will accept whatever revisions in in over-sight, derivative trading, and accounting. LOn second thought, let's nix accounting standards. Maybe these new rules will be worth another 1,000 points to the upside.

Solace
In this blog, I have found an outlet which has allowed me to place reason and logic to a world that in many ways is senseless. As of late, many things just don't add up politically or economically. But I am still convinced that we live in the greatest country in the world.

Tribe Talk
Fausto Carmona and Jake Westbrook should be back in the big leagues within two weeks. This will add valuable arms to a beleaguered pitching staff. Yet as the cliche often goes, if it is not one thing it is another. Today, our bats took the day off giving St. Louis a game that should have invariably ended in another Tribe victory. Haffner is outright irritating, and Martinez should not be expected to carry the team. It is nice to see the bat of Choo come alive as well.

Grande Tirino
I would rate this movie two thumbs up. Clint Eastwood plays a crotchy old man...an Archie Bunker type on steroids. The destruction of an old neighborhood, generational strife, and a basic human decency that we either share or do not share for one another. And it is this human decency that separates us from the other animals on this planet.

He's Baaaaack... The Golden Boy... Conventional Wisdom... Market Watch...

He's Back...First and foremost, I would like to apologize to my readers for not updating the site since May 22nd. As fate would have it, my computer came down with a case of the Swine Flu... While it was not fatal, the flue did cause a severe disruption in the ability to function properly. It is good to know people who are good at computer stuff. A special thanks to Yorg, who had the right perscription for the ailment...

The Golden Boy...
I like Barack... and when I was in Washington last week, I could not help but think that this country will eventually recover. This is not to say that there are not more than a few bumps in the road ahead... (These are acknowledged by the President himself) But, Barack seems to have an uncanny aire about him that clearly separates him from many of his predecessors. Unlike W. Bush, Barack has a vision for the future and more importantly an aura of confidence that clearly suggests that better days are ahead. Time and time again it appears that our nation has been blessed by a sense of "right person" at the "right time". I do not buy into the fact that the media favors Obama. However, I believe that Obama has almost a sixth sense about him when dealing with the media. Matter of fact... like it or not... Obama is able to clearly articulate a future beyond the current crisis... I was able to see a more human side of the President as he and his daughters walked their dog at the White House. While many disagree with the way that the Administration has handled TARP, TALF, Chrysler, GM, and a plethera of visions for America's future, one thing is for certain, Obama has the political capital, and he is spending it wisely. I would like to remind readers that Bush was in a similar situation early in his administration, immediately after 911.

Conventional Wisdom...
Recently, Nouriel Roubini cited an article by Edward Harrison who gave cause for the recent market run-up. On almost a continual basis the market has escaped the jaws of death on almost a daily basis. Information that is bad is often times leaked early. Or better yet, there is other good news that trumps the bad. Even though the good news is based on a "not as bad as expected" scenario, one is only left to believe that a high degree of market manipulation is taking place. It is almost as if the PPT (Plunge Protection Team) is reading from a closely orchestrated script. I'll be curious if the market rallys on 9% employment...

Edwards cites a "Short-Covering Rally" as another potential explanation for the market. While many shorts have jumped from one week tot he next... and now one month to the next... the destruction of short positions are taking away the negative ebb of teh market tide, and more importantly adding momentum to the upside where there is little to no credence for an upside swing.

Last, Edwards made reference to a Paul Kudrosky interview which considered the current market rally as the new beginnings of a bull market. While the current rally is based on a late 2009/early 2010 recovery, even Kudrosky does not totaly buy in to it. Kudrosky acknowledges the bulls current hold on the market. However, he reasserts the systemic risk to the downside. "How much longer can central banks prop up the market?"

Market Watch
For me, I will have to pound my chest over the small victories I have gainned in the face of bull market onslaught. I have built a cash position, and licked a few wounds. In other cases, I have simply let some of my options roll...especially those with longer x dates. Trust me, I would much rather be betting on a Dow 20,000 scenario... I just don't buy it now... at least not yet...

SLV, D, and NEOP have been winners for me.

I will look to capilatize on a recent market run-up on those stocks which depend on consumer discretionary.
WSM, WYNN, GAP

The Terminator... The Market... The Politician Who was Not...

The Terminator
Arnold Schwarzenegger wanted to become President, but he had to settle for Governor of California, the fourth largest economy in the world. After leading a campaign to recall then Governor Grey Davis, then winning a special 2003 recall election against the likes of Gary Coleman, and adult film star Mary Carey, Schwarzenegger enjoyed a series of minor victories including an initiative to decrease license registrations. Consider the following economic conditions that helped propel California's wealth:

1. Silicon Valley
2. Ports to the Far East
3. Cheap labor from Mexico
4. Obnoxious appreciation in housing prices

However, Arnold is seeing the state of California crumble around him. One Californian summed it up this way. "Silicon Valley is waiting for the next great idea to come around." The housing market like much of California was based on easy credit. And let us not forget the ports which have been the center of California's success. When trade stopped, so did California easy money from the ports.

"California is looking at a budget deficit projected at more than $24 billion when the new fiscal year starts in July. That is more than one-quarter of the state's general fund.

This week, voters said they no longer want the Legislature to balance budgets with higher taxes, complicated transfer schemes or borrowing that pushes California's financial problems off into the distant future. In light of that, Republican Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger has made it clear he intends to close the gap almost entirely through drastic spending cuts." (1)

It is often said that California enjoys being the innovator and trend setter for the rest of the nation. Should this be the case, the tremors in California may well stretch to other areas in the nation. California could suffer more than any other state in the Union... except for Nevada who is in a league of their own. These problems are not the fault of Arnold. More or less it is a combination of a weak state constitution that is easily amended, lobbyists who influence politicians, politicians who are easily duped, and a belief that good times would last forever. Parlay those belief with a good old dose of loony left politics and you have a recipe for disaster.

The Market
The Dow Jones finished another down week. For those of you who are keeping track, the last four of five weeks the Dow has finished down. Some analysts are calling this a consolidation period. Others are not so easily sold on the market rally. One analyst David Rosenberg suggested that all should “keep an open mind as to whether the lows from March will hold or not as we go into the second half of this year. I’m not sure where the buying power is going to come from.” (2)

In the most classic sense, markets generally test their lows before a new bull market can begin. The 1929 Chart shows that each test only brought a another new low. Buyer beware!!!

A familiar theme has been casino stocks based solely on discretionary spending. A short on WYNN last week reaped a handsome profit as share value dropped over 20% in the past week... I was happy to see that MCRI was down in sympathy!!! Still, I need another few dollars of drop in stock price by September...and think that it can happen. Should Wynn creep over the Mason-Dixon line of $40.00 consider another short with confidence. With a bit of luck, I will do my own bit to hurt the casinos when my wife and I celebrate our 10 year anniversary later this year. I have been utilizing the KO card counting system with a degree of success, but must familiarize myself with the nuances of 2,4, and 6 deck strategies.

Still though, United Bank's failure in Florida did little to move today's market. After all, it was only another $4.9 billion dollar hit to the F.D.I.C... and let's face it, who is keeping track of F.D.I.C. losses anymore...(3) Interestingly enough, someone is paying attention as the 10 Year Treasuries are losing a bit of interest. Rates are now at 3.4% and it appears that the Fed will make another purchase of T-Bills to sop up the extra T-bills that not one else wants. While I do believe our financial system is based on a high degree of genius and sophistication... we are reminded of the farmer who went to the well too many times found his well to be empty.

The Politician Who Was Not...
I would encourage all readers to Google the name Andrew Mizsak. He is from Bedford, Ohio... is a member of the school board... and for all intensive purposes is an aspiring politician. The dreams of politics came to a screeching halt the other day as police were called to his house during a domestic incident. It turns out that the 29 year old (who lives in his parent's basement) refused to clean his room... and furthermore threw a temper tantrum when his parents wouldn't get off his back. Upon police arrival, Andrew went to his room crying promising to clean it. I have definite thoughts about this incident, but will let readers draw their own conclusions. I hope that he owns his behavior, and treats this as a growing experience. This goes to show all readers that everyone..everyone has a public and a private life...

1. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090522/ap_on_re_us/us_california_day_of_reckoning
2. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7DLzGCIOJ3s
3. http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/05/21/AR2009052104393.html

A Brave New World?

A Brave New World

"All our science is just a cookery book, with an orthodox theory of cooking that nobody's allowed to question, and a list of recipes that mustn't be added to except by special permission from the head cook."
- Aldous Huxley, Brave New World, Ch. 16

A quote from Huxley’s A Brave New World seems appropriate at this juncture. Huxley wrote a futuristic book that did so much as to question how modern day trends might evolve into a futuristic world where people are numb and mindless sheep.

Let the Sun Shine In…
A story that drew little to no attention this week deals with the Bloomberg lawsuit in which they filed a motion for summary judgment against the Federal Reserve of New York. The Federal Reserve gave loans to a number of banks during the financial crisis. (1) The Federal Reserve will not make disclosure of the banks who received loans. More importantly, the Federal Reserve refuses to list the collateral it received for the bank loans. I would like to remind readers that the public will be put over the barrel on this one. Not only was Secretary of Treasury Tim Geithner in charge of the Federal Reserve during the loan arrangement, but it is obvious that the Obama Administration must have accepted the role Geithner played. Moreover, we can expect the Federal Judge (an appointee of the Bush Administration) to back the Federal government. However, I wanted to remind readers that the Federal judges receive lifetime appointments for reasons such as this. Should she rule to open the books, there is really nothing the government can do to stop her…except appeal the case to a higher court.

As one manager for PNC told me “Well a good portion of those toxic assets now belong to the Federal Reserve…and they are not our problem any more.” I am sure he had no idea that he was going to be quoted in this blog.

The Recession-proof City
In a visit to Las Vegas nearly 10 years ago, we visited a friend named Steve. He billed Las Vegas as a miracle city. One of the last places in the United States where a person could graduate high school and still earn $100 grand a year. If waitresses upgraded their game with the proper investments in silicone, they too could earn $70,000 to 80,000 as cocktail waitresses. Aside from Las Vegas becoming a Mecca for retirees, it also was the fastest growing city in the U.S. for several years running. This could have been the part where enough eternal optimists got together to cook up CityCenter. (2) This futuristic city built in the middle of a land of rock, sand, and desert demonstrates that business models should always have contingency plans for a worse case scenario. (See bankruptcy) (3) A city and town built on the excesses of a credit-driven economy (in many ways similar to the Roaring 20’s) has a rendezvous with destiny. Quite simply, there are currently not enough U.S. dollars to keep this city floating for any extended period of time. Even the Train Track to Nowhere relies on a state like California and its people who are in the midst of financial abyss. (4)

Still though, it appears that the March and April rallies have pumped a bit of juice into casino stocks. My recommendations are to short all of the casinos including:
MCRI: After one big down day, traders were back piling into this dandy… Looks like a loser to me…
WYNN:
LVS:
MGM: MGM Mirage, which announced Thursday that it had completed a dilutive $1 billion public stock offering priced at $7 a share, closed down 10.8% to $7.76. MGM originally said it would offer 81 million shares, but instead sold 143 million.
STN…oops they already filed for bankruptcy. (5)

The End Around
I must admit, that I knew of no one who was unemployed at the beginning of the year…now I know of at least a dozen people who have lost their jobs. And I will give anyone associated with the auto industry a pass on this one. Still though, Wall Street shrugged off an increase in unemployment claims, an upward revision in last week’s phony numbers, and another record in continuing unemployment. (6) One would gather that SCC (a short play on consumer discretionary spending) would be a slam dunk here. Yet, the deterioration factor of any and all ultra short funds must be taken into consideration. These are plays that should be held for days not months. Rather, I would like to think that CNK still with negative earnings maybe be a more logical consideration here. Ax Man’s LNY has seen a decent run, and may be in short order as well. Let’s not forget the BBW.

If there is one sacrificial lamb of the car industry, then Chrysler must be it. Chrysler the company receives little to no sympathy from me. However, the workers have made concessions only to learn that at least five of their plants are closing. As Fiat courts the auto maker, one may find it almost amazing that the billions of dollars loaned to them are dead… and the stipulations on executive pay are being circumvented as many of them are signing on as FIAT employees, thus not having to follow any rules regarding compensation.

1. http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHh9dSQhgzMA&refer=home
2. http://www.citycenter.com/
3. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123811086468552891.html
4. http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/2186844/posts
5. http://www.ktnv.com/Global/story.asp?S=10185395
6. http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHh9dSQhgzMA&refer=home